System EROI is NOT the typical EROI you see...

 So what is sEROI anyway?  Lets start with what is EROI... Energy Return on Investment is a ratio of how much energy you can get out of an activity versus how much energy you put into that activity. Historically energy feedstocks change as depletion - or the consumption of that resource - results in depletion which typically alters the EROI over time.  How does that happen? Well for example, early oil wells produced 100 times the output for each energy unit consumed.  In other words, for each gallon of fuel used to dig the well, you got back 100 gallons of oil. Nice - think of that as the good old days but I warn you it was a once and done deal.

Today the EROI ratio for oil has fallen to 15:1 a huge difference, and as oil depletes it will take more exploration, deeper wells and geographic challenges that will make energy in vs energy out converge towards 1:1.  Think of this as our worlds gas tank being full in 1930 and down below the one quarter mark - sorta between that last quarter and EMPTY.  If you were driving a car and noticed that, you'd be feverishly looking for a gas station.  But alas, planet Earth has no cosmic filling station.  Hmmmm, maybe we should be paying attention to this.  

As a footnote to this topic, no modern civilization can expect to see economic growth with an EROI under 10:1.  Stagnation, yes - growth no.  De-growth as the ratio moves towards 1:1, with economic collapse occurring somewhere in between. 

So that was EROI.  sEROI is the broader reality of the system required to produce that energetic thing. Solar panels for example, require consumption of a lot of energy dedicated to mining  stuff like Neodymium, Dysprosium, and Terbium, Lanthanum and Yttrium, Cerium Oxide, Indium, Gallium, and Tellurium, which all have to undergo concentration of these mined ores so they can then be made into panels, frames, and don't forget the huge furnaces that burn more fuel so we can make the panel glass, then more mining of low grade copper to make wires and various other components. Then in this example, when the solar panels are no longer efficient, we can recycle the few parts that can actually be recycled at economic EROI and dispose of the toxic waste.  In fact it costs about $40 USD to recycle a panel and $5 USD to toss it in a landfill - so guess where they all end up. This is an example of a total life cycle system. For solar panels that are analyzed over a full life cycle which includes, creation, use and toxic waste disposal - an "extended" EROI typically falls near or below 3:1 and that's if you actually get a 20 year life.  That's a sketchy number too many believe 15 years is about right.  If you go further into the system and consider the extended EROI for batteries, grid buffering and back up generation plants that must come on when the sun isn't bright enough, you barely break even, truthfully, we are probably net negative.  Certainly well below 3:1 which suggests that this is not a sustaining source, but probably a net energy sink that isn't obvious until you look at the system EROI.  By the way both solar panels and wind systems drive an exotic mineral demand/dependency that is 10 times greater than a typical fossil fuel energy source. With a concomitant knock on effect of fueling up the mining, refining and waste remediation just to get the raw materials created and available for manufacture.  Both have long supply chain tentacles that are energy hungry and come along with dubious environmental impacts.  

The often mis-used phrase of "renewable" is more aptly described as "re-buildable at a cost."  

So for example, solar PV extended EROIs look like 2:1 or maybe 3:1 in really favorable locations not the generated number from the finished good. Wind power may be as high as 7:1 but more typically 4:1 or 5:1.  By the way, ethanol the magical bio-fuel has an EROI of 0.7:1 lol the definition of an energy sink. Fracked oil - around 5:1.  All systems say "holy cow."  

So the take-away is: Oil is the whole economy.  Green isn't very, and renewables are not.  The real question I have for you and the world in general is, why are we not in a serious conservation mode? That is the only strategy that makes much sense to me.  Simplify, get regional, get small.  

As energy EROI continues its glide towards 1:1 also realize that long before you get there, the energy used to reinvest in making more energy will consume societal needs like infra-structure, road building, steel making, fixing bridges, paving roads and fertilizing farm fields.  Energy cannibalism will happen, as competition for the available BTUs increases.  Your local data center will eventually be competing for your irrigation water and available power for your home - I'm not kidding.  GDP will also decline with disproportionate impacts depending on where you live (helpful to live by a hydro plant) and which government you are a part of (I like Sweden and Norway). This grab for energy dominance appears to be the motivation for many of the bazaar events happening on a global scale right now.  But all of that aside, the end game is the same.  You can - through conquest - control all of the black gold aka Texas Tea for a while but it is a finite resource and as it is consumed we all share the same fate.  Keeping all of your marbles also burns resources, remember once and done.  History is a great teacher if you bother to read about it and can comprehend it. Buy a fishing pole and learn how to fish. Plant a garden, get a scooter.  Don't forget to laugh often and cherish your loved ones.  The world did just fine before 1800.  Get to know your neighbors and have that block party.  

What makes a battery so very different from a tank full of gasoline?

 Both store energy right? That is perhaps as far as the casual observer ever gets in thinking about it.

There is of course a tremendous difference.  Once the gasoline is consumed - that's the end of the energy storage system for combustion engine powered automobiles.  What remains is an empty metal or plastic tank (HDPE in the US).  Both materials having been designed over the years to survive all but the most extreme crashes.  Plastic is preferred as it is lighter and more malleable in the event of an accident and therefore is less likely to leak.  What then is so different about an EV battery pack?  Its case is rather inert too isn't it?

The dead, completely out of charge batteries still contain an enormous amount of stored chemical energy.  Chemical energy that can be ignited various ways with extremely dangerous results.  Let's take a closer look.

A typical automotive EV battery pack stores 75 kW of electrical energy when fully charged.  That's around 270 million Joules of electrical energy.  When it is completely exhausted it still has 25 million Joules of chemical energy that thermal runaway can emit.  A completely charged pack can emit both energy types and can liberate 400 million Joules!  

So you see there is a profound difference in how these propulsion system choices work and what they can do.  Read on!

So let's think about what 25 and 400 million joules looks like in a real world example The minimum and maximum effect of a battery pack thermal runaway like some Volvo EX30s are experiencing globally right now. The lower the state of charge the "safer" the situation. Yet another whoopsie here and here.

25 million Joules is akin to a large bon-fire burning for about an hour.  You probably don't want that to happen anywhere near your home or in a parking garage.  This is why repair shops often require EV's that need repair to be stored safely away from anything flammable.  So if your EV has a fender-bender park it away from anything flammable until the manufacturers technicians can tell you that the battery pack hasn't been damaged and you are safe to continue using your car.  By the way many manufacturers play it safe and condem a pack that has been in a car that was in an accident.  So new battery, not under warranty.  So DO NOT GET INTO AN ACCIDENT!  

400 million joules - that's a local TV news worthy event. Radiant heat would be felt tens of meters away, fire fighters need proper gear to get close to it, suppression will take hours and anything near it could be blasted by jets of flame.  A bad day for everybody. 

But that's not all.  The fumes are often MORE dangerous than the flames. Hydrogen fluoride is made during the combustion of the battery pack which can burn your lungs, eyes and exposed skin. Human respiratory failure can happen even hours after exposure.  If you cant get free of the fumes just a few breaths at high concentration will kill you.  There is also carbon monoxide, cyanide compounds and acidic aerosols from pack materials.  Lastly, metallic particulates get airborne from lithium salts, nickel, cobalt and manganese battery components.  The smoke often fills an enclosed space in seconds.  By the way, the toxic cloud may be lethal to breath 50 meters or more down wind from the conflagration.  Some of these toxins are odorless so be careful! Then there is the risk of boom...

Fire departments consider an EV fire Immediately Dangerous to Life or Health (IDLH) and only approach the scene with HAZMAT gear which is de-contaminated after use.    People who have been exposed to some degree of exposure and survived report, a burning sensation in their throats and chest, temporary blindness, nausea and shortness of breath that gets worse with time.  Some of these toxins could effect your quality of life for the rest of your life. 

So understand the risks you are taking and what you need to do if you decide to go the EV route or if you see an EV on fire.  Stay far away,  Even an e-bike fire in your apartment can be lethal. This is why laws are being put in place to bar the storage of e-bikes in apartments.

There's a different way of reacting to an EV fire than the old fashioned gasoline powered car, e-bike or e-scooter.  A leaking gas tank may catch fire or not.  Can usually be extinguished in minutes, if not stay away from the vehicle because any burning car can liberate foul toxic fumes of various species.  But Ev fires involving the battery packs present an especially serious situation.  Now you know.  

Another year older NLO

 Happy B-Day... I remember it like it was yesterday.

 

AML Dad 

Merry Christmas to all of our friends in the East

 

Christ is Born

Let us all pray for peace!  

Happy New Year 2026

 Zoooom, another year flew by.  Another chair disappears...

The thing about "musical chairs" is that it's not democratic. It is raw ambition, sneaky and it generally lacks negotiation or compassion for the players left standing.  There's a lot to be learned from this game.  

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/mOy9f1lfFpg

The world's contestants fighting for their energy chairs exhibit a profound lack of empathy.  Hmmm, people like that have been at the center of most of the disastrous expressions of evil the world has yet seen.   Stay tuned.

The phrase "Lack of Empathy, the Father of Evil" is a prominent concept derived from the observations of Captain G.M. Gilbert, an American psychologist assigned to the prisoners at the Nuremberg trials after World War II. He concluded that a lack of empathy was the single characteristic connecting all the Nazi defendants. 

If we look around these days we see many such examples.   Sadly.

Blessed Christmas Wishes

During this Christmas Eve, my hope is for our peace, even though there are so many who have never wanted that, my hope is for our good health, happiness in your families and prosperity in your lives.  Whoever you, my visitor are and no matter where you live, I wish for peace and kindness in your lives my friends.  

Our friends in the East will celebrate on the 7th of January.  May the good Lord guide, bless and protect us all from the madness in this world.

Can a large scale organization of humans even become sustainable?

Let's wrestle this down from a historical perspective.

Humans on this planet have never achieved long term sustainability.  Gulp. That's right, we have formed big groups... like ancient Egypt, the Inca Empire, the Edo Period and Nabatean civilizations but guess what?  They all collapsed and for different reasons.. So let's contemplate the assist we are enjoying by copious abundant feedstocks of energy and how those who came before us still managed to reach an apex without that gift and still collapsed.  What about our enormous energy overhang and billions of people with no real survivability skills? Worlds biggest correction will happen - maybe in a generation, maybe sooner if knuckle headed decisions are made. We have an insatiable focus on financial machinations as the mechanism for fixing everything.  We have not evolved.

Historians cite, environmental exploitation, overshoot, complexity and the lack of long term planning to adapt to the plethora of threats out there as the most common reasons for societal collapse.  

So when we speak of sustainable anything we are really projecting wishful thinking - just an ignorant proclamation in defiance of our history or maybe we are invoking a carefully chosen marketing trope. It sounds great to investors even if it isn't possible.  PT Barnum would be proud.

Sustainable isn't the same as survivable, or adaptable and many small, independent and geographically lucky in the world's history have been in the right place at the right time and managed to evolve.  But a planetary sustainable culture after oil?  Never has happened so perhaps the strategy of the realist should be reductionist, independent and organic in concept and execution. Small, resourceful and peaceful wouldn't hurt either.  Circular economies, purpose driven innovation and the ending of wasteful diversions of talent and energy seem like great ideas to explore.  Seems like financialization has to finally go away too - but that's just my view of things.  Think, what were successful communities doing in 1860? 

Just something to think about when the rubber finally hits the road. Sustainability is simply - a canard. It's a little bit of Edward Bernays scammery mixed in with that irresistible financialization addiction the West loves. Adaptability and survivability actually mean something.  That's where we need to focus our thoughts, and we should change (correct) the language as best as we can to focus on what is real and achievable.  How to remove waste in policy and our world while building towards adaptation of life with less cheap energy and eventually, very little energy.  There you go - your homework assignment for 2026. What can you do to reduce your energy dependence by 50%?   That would be an excellent start! What adaptations could you make, substitutions and modest lifestyle changes?  Intriguing thought isn't it?