Easy concept to grasp. Get smaller right? What's so hard about that? As a first thought - nothing. But it's more complicated than that. Meet Mr Knock-on and his band called "The second order effects".
The energy resources we have are finite in nature. Indeed, some might argue that Saturn's moon Titan has lakes of hydrocarbons and it rains methane. Fair enough, why couldn't a handful of geophysical processes cook up CH4? Turns out Titan is a floating gas station making the argument for abiotic oil pretty solid as one of the ways these energy dense chemistries are formed. All that aside, there is a "make rate" and our experience on this planet suggests it is much slower than our consumption rate. This renders the point of how it got there a moot debate. The depletion of our hydrocarbons will drive contraction in these petrochemical dependencies... as well as make the price of air, land and sea mobility rise. Those will also grudgingly retract with various outcomes on society.
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| Canada Energy Regulator Graphic Here is a fun party think piece: Remove 1/2 the oil and gas source from the fan above. What products drop out? How will the re-balance be done? Get out your popcorn! |
So depletion of hydrocarbons means a geopolitical battle is fomenting, which ultimately means less of something like:
Industrial chemicals
Agricultural fertilizers - thats food for a hungry population
Paints and various important coatings
Synthetic rubber
Resins
Explosives
Dyes - but we can always go back to beet juice and crushed flowers in a pinch.
Adhesives - don't forget there's always good ole twine.
Plastics
Soaps and detergents
Foams
Pharmaceuticals
Clothing
Gas stations
Trains
Planes
Ships
kW-hrs of power
Tires
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Travel of all kinds unless it's via bicycle and you're a 5 minute city type already.
and Grease for the wheels of industry...
etc., etc., etc
Think of the manufacturers of these end products as invested stake holders in a game of musical chairs. The posturing has been taking place for a long time now, but the music is just now starting.
Apart from the economics which suggests scarcity will make all prices go up, depletion will reduce the number of end products and solutions / needs that are enabled by petrochemicals and as a supply and demand artifact, the ensuing loss of follow on commerce derived from this retraction will topple every pre-depletion business model. Chaotic reassessment and re-calibration will be the new normal. Hair on fire for supply chain types. Promises made based on an expanding economy will be shattered. Sorry.
So how will the fight of the market players in this game play out?
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| IEA Data |
Probably more power than profit driven, the stake holders will fight to the last BTU. None of them are interested in conservation or eco anything. Anything that reduces margin is rejected unless a regulation with a penalty of some kind actually forces it. Drill baby drill. Wooo hooo 1 minute to midnight and the joint is hoppin'.
Packaging will be shifting away from plastic and foam materials... I hear pine needles work pretty well.
Hand delivered mail, horse drawn carts and bicycles to the rescue. I love a good tuk-tuk or rickshaw.
Construction adhesives used to make plywood, caulks and sealants will get harder to fight for which will force reversion back to solid wood and glazing windows the good old fashioned way... with pine tar and oakum. Look out IKEA, iceberg dead ahead.
Transportation costs will push mass transit towards economy and efficient use of transport vehicles. Privately owned wheels will look more like a Grom than a Silverado. A little tricky to drive on icy roads, but trust me - you'll get used to it.
Pure cotton and wool will be the new materials for your post collapse toga. I see a sporty wool hood for the up North types.
Pharma and agriculture aka "other" will be fighting a strange battle of profitability which looks like meds vs fertilizer... The winner will return the best margin not necessarily a full stomach. Maybe store up some antibacterial hand lotion lol, last time that went off the shelves a little fast.
Consumer products will see plastics slowly disappear, lovely wood consoles will replace them but only for for the deep pocket crowd.
Wheels of industry will keep spinning just a more expensive maintenance program.
Get used to seeing a lot more lyme paint.
Renaissance Fairs won't be artsy or historical re-enactments but educational seminar material. I suppose the scholars at Harvard, Yale and Brown will show us how it's done that is, as long as there's a funding line from their fav trough. Expect new PhDs in mud pit layout for making adobe bricks and building stuff without nails or glues. They'll adapt. Maybe there'll be a Redmond inspired race to patent the genius they prattle on about.
So the trip down the depletion side will be bumpy, grumpy and not much fun. The big take away is just the hydrocarbons, let alone the other MANY depletionary minerals and soil nutrients loss will have a multi-demensional impact with thousands of significant secondary effects, most will have no replacement and in toto these shortfalls will shove our current way of life into a new space that I call "Neopioneering". The new pioneer will think twice before tossing out those slightly worn shoes! See a treadle powered Singer at a rummage sale? Snag it! Don't forget to stash a few extra bobbins too.
Don't worry about inflation and its effects on your world lol, -only matters if there is a real economy in the first place. With contraction it seems like money has to become a token issued by a government(s) as a basic universal income lifeline like digital food or ration stamp. Sadly that will probably mean it will be digitally flipped on and off like a switch and used to keep its recipients in "right think" or else turned off. We shall see, and probably very soon. Although Orwellian, seems like the only logical solution to keep millions from storming the castle gates with pitchforks and torches...
Short one, just wanted to get you all thinking, the derivative effects are actually seismic. Which in my view sets the stage for rapid and radical transition once the music really gets going and the Jenga effect becomes noticeable. Not tomorrow, but if you are in your 20's, 30' or 40's... you will get to experience this energy collapse in your lifetime. This is one big Jenga (pull out one supporting petrochemical and the avalanche MIGHT start, pull out a few more and the whole thing comes tumbling down) with cascading shortfalls that reach into every part of modern life from weird packaging to silent nutrient loss which will drive seemingly mysterious health problems to the disappearance of certain fabrics in your clothes. But if you pay attention, you will see the Jenga tower collapsing.
If you don't already know about Lehman's or Cottage Craft I encourage you to have a look.
