An oldie but none the less, an uncanny theory

 If Duncan knew about a futuristic decade long boost in oil production brought on by unconventional fracture and directional drilling he'd have predicted a longer window.  Kind of like right where we are now... most data available suggests we are in a global decline.  What happens next is going to be very interesting.

Sadly Richard passed away in 2006 so we can't blame him for missing that anomalous blip.    That blip however, clearly demonstrated that very low EROIs are now the new normal.  Another bell weather indicator if you pay attention to such things.

I wonder if the entrance to the lobby at the GM Corporate R&D Center still has the life sized portrait of Alfred Sloan in the lobby - and if it still says "Inventor of Planned Obsolescence"?  Gonna have to change that way of thinking!

Olduvai Theory

The road to Olduvai Gorge...

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Energy or lack there of makes governments do some pretty strange things...

 This is one of them...

It's an open secret...  So what, you may be thinking, does this mean?  Well, changes will be forced upon the global population (doesn't sound like something a democratic process handles very well hmmm lets think about that).  There isn't really a choice anymore (IMHO).  The time to plan for a soft transition was probably 30 years ago - or more.  This is not a new concept, and there are those in the energy sector who have been predicting this since the 1950's.  But our esteemed and highly educated governing class have looked the other way.  Buying into the notion that a solution will just materialize.  Why not, the economists that want to drill baby drill said so. Such a moronic outlook.  Finite resources suffer the same crushing depletion story every time.  I grew up in a mining town.  I can assure you that there is still a whole lot of copper and high grade iron ore at the bottom of some very deep mine shafts.  So why did those mines close and are now very deep holes filled with water? The cost of extraction became economically unfeasible.  Would you spend $300.00 / bbl to bring crude oil to the market?   Nope - you can't print oil like you can dollars.  No easy button here.  The one thing that appears most rational to me, and many others is rapid de-centralization to alternate renewables in micro grids and an honest social awareness not unlike the the conservation movement of the 1970's.  The solution - if there is one - is best derived by honest and frank participation by the world's populations.  There are so many brilliant people out there.  I'm not saying that somebody in their garage (a common fairy tale / cover story about modern inventors) has the answer.  No I think this time we need MANY answers and a shift away from centralized distribution. An old an inefficient model... to locally produced solar, wind, hydro and geo.  Consumed where it was converted.  Storage is a problem.  Perhaps we could put a few billion dollars to work there instead of on some of the other energy plays we seem to be so fascinated with.  What I sense is that we are living in a time when most leaders have their heads firmly bolted on backwards.  We're conserving via veiled policy and denying the use of our collective brilliance by not discussing the real elephant in the room.  

One other thought to consider... as mineral ores deplete and production costs rise (yes it is a finite world for these too) the poorer grades of ore will require even more energy to concentrate.  So along with the fundamental driver - Energy, dependent resources will also exert pressure on our way of life.  In this regard known reserves mean very little when the larger system dynamics are included in an analysis. Many argue that there is no worry, we have abundant resources.  It all depends on how you understand depletion, dilution and energy in proper context.  

My parting comment to you...  there is a huge reality gap between economics, physics and the sociopathic echo chamber of insulated and uber wealthy groups like WEF.  The failure to actually understand how the world works from experience and appreciating the genius and the beautifully inventive human mind is a blind spot for the well healed egoist.  (I might add that amazing ideas and awesome solutions mostly come from the ordinary people - certainly most of those gifted and talented this world has to offer have never seen Yale, Harvard, Kings or the myriad ivory towers of the wold (who all claim incredibly that face masks protect you from anything...) much less have they been attendants of any Davos sleepovers) A small number of "elites" who think they can change the world is a truly bazaar notion.  For sure they own the propaganda, can make up all manner of financial machinations, but they know nothing about the details, the hard science and the cold reality of how the wheels really turn.  Money won't solve our problems. I've been using analytical tools to analyze the engineering applications of the world around us for 40 years now.  I can attest to the fact that simulations based on linearized (mostly non-linear) phenomena is sketchy at best.  You can add all the AI you want to this problem.  Good luck with that.  Intellectual overconfidence based on ignorance and grant money will always yield GIGO.  Most importantly, top down dictates will simply waste time when there isn't a lot of time to waste.

My two cents,

Lee

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Easter Blessings to all in the East

 Christ is Risen!

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Easter Blessings to All in the West...

 Christos harjav i merelotz! – Orhniale harutjun Christosi!

 Khristos Uvoskros! – Zaprowdu Uvoskros!

 Pikhirstof aftonf! – Khen o methni aftonf!

 Kristus vstal zmrtvy’ch! – Skutec ne vstal!

 Christus is opgestaan! – Hij is waarlijk opgestaan!

 Christ is Risen! – Indeed, He is Risen!

 Kristus nousi Kuolleista! – Totisesti Nousi!

 Christ est Ressuscité! – En Vérité, Il est Ressuscité!

 Christos Anesti! – Alithos Anesti!

 Ha Mashiyach qam! – Ken hoo qam!

 Khristos voskres! – Voistinu voskres!

 Kristus vstal zmr’tvych! – Skutoc ne vstal!

 !

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History does indeed repeat itself... it just takes a few generations to forget context and facts.

 Usually only the names change...

Same herd mentality so easily steered by organizations, businesses, politicians and the power hungry with motive.  Where is the critical thinking? I suppose the human race has never had much of it, because it's hard to go against the "experts" and their backing.  It is just the rare person who will seek it out and then be pretty much powerless in the face of sociopaths on their way to "greatness."  The meek shall inherit the World.  (After the "experts" get it profoundly wrong or overplay their mania again... and the masses put their foot down)

This is another piece of history not taught in the textbooks.  "Science" is an evolving grouping of ideas, always challenging itself, always being tested.  These days censorship has degraded science to opinion.  Just like it has so many times in our past.  Replication, debate, transparency and honest statistics light the darkness.  Anything less is a cultist dogma.  My two cents.

 

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Great music for our times by some talented twin sisters...

 

LOL...

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Happy B-Day NLO!

 All my love, Dad. Always in my prayers.

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