The ten predictions for 2021 were:
1. Mobility energy breakthrough - the solid state battery will emerge as the clear winner negating the need for all of the exotic metals and finally returning rhodium to its rightful status as a so-so - whaddya do with that stuff kind of element.
2. Dystopian application of technology will create a global backlash for law makers to enact civil liberty protections - one always follows the other - but intoxicating power takes time to subdue. Don't forget the genie is out of the bag and good guys and bad guys are out there. If your gonna keep bad guys from bad digital things you eventually need real laws for everybody. Sorry silicon valley si-pals, the wild west is gonna have to get tamed.
Wow DING!
3. New building and transportation codes will slowly be rolled out as a result of acknowledged learning about airborne virus infection pathways. Re-circulating air in common occupant spaces not so good, electrostatic scrubbers good... UV-C 260 nanometer lighted air filtration good... Mass transit health related codes are ancient or non-existent, time to integrate some easy low tech - low cost public health improvements. Really, how many times have you caught something from a flight? Too many times for me and way easy to improve.
Bonk! Public health matters like prevention doesn't generate cash for pharma... so don't look for it!
4. Tensions flare in the Malacca Straight as the idea of building your own island and weaponizing it catches on... yeah, it's been done before. Tit for Tat, expect it. Japan, Australia and India probably have ideas of their own. I dunno, they say good fences make good neighbors.
5. Blow back on all things digital. I'm not sure what it will look like, but I think enough folks have lost enough income to maybe bring into focus the down side of silicon valley.
6. The US re-discovers S. America. Trade agreements start to ramp up. So does tourism.
Sort of a DING... exports grew - imports declined... I suspect trade will grow steadily as fuel prices shorten supply chains - Just ask Apple, who has suddenly discovered Mexico!
7. US agriculture booms as Brexit opens up a huge 60M people opportunity for export of high quality agriculture to the UK. Gas up the John Deere - it's gonna be big!
BONK - it's complicated! and a story yet to tell.
8. IoT expands into pet products. Expect to see an "iCollar" for your cat or dog to be worn in place of their old ID tag. Yup, new ways to train - imagine giving your pet voice directions from across a field or from work. Apps that plot where they are, cameras to show what they see, no longer just a license dangling on a d-ring - but a digital record any smart phone can read through a blue tooth app... New possibilities, a renaissance in pet training. Books will be written! 5G and your Dog... Do you Know your Cat's URL? The Cat as Witness... LOL - endless marketing po$$ibilitie$. Pure gold for PETCO, CHEWY and infomercial producers. Maybe even enough oomph to displace pharma in the US tv ad business!
9. Geophysicists will publish some amazing science on the natural course of global climate change that will achieve escape velocity from the talking heads and politicians... It's good to know what really happens from the prospective of those who do the research, take the data and validate theory with replication. See my earlier post about the "fact of the matter." I believe climatologists are cranky enough not to allow their science to get politicized. Talking heads onthe other hand... just read what's in front of them with the tonal inflections and banter their producers write in the margins of their scripts...
BONK! Global warming is the new cover story for fuel scarcity - now and as long as money can be made on the narrative, stand back! Climate lockdowns - will be part of the up coming show. None of this will make any sense to most people who haven't figured out the bigger picture.
10. Northwest Passage picks up volume as satellite based solutions for avoiding sea ice are found. Oooooee the trek from Asia to Europe gets shorter and waaaay less expensive. I wonder if new cities will emerge up there? Real estate in the frozen North must be a real bargain right now!
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WOW... 8 out of 10 that's way better than a coin toss! Now let's see what 2022 looks like:
1. Easy to foresee - automotive production to nose dive world wide. New e-models just less of them... fewer vehicles translates to less future demand on oil... Lots of reasons for this. Ride sharing and infrastructure like passenger rail will be making a come back.
2. The start of chronic agricultural failures create grain shortages this summer that will cause problems in the fall. Escalating energy costs will re-distribute where the and how the fuels get used and Ag is vulnerable in energy poor regions of the world. Key problem to solve is Nitrogen...
3. Tumult and strife in energy starved populations world wide as energy scarcity means tensions grow.
4. Business models that depended on cheap energy like FEDex and UPS will have to modify their basic business models and may break up or cease to exist. Creative destruction as they say.
5. Travel restrictions in 2022 will soon be attributed to climate change in stead of the spiky virus, it's the one way to make money in an energy scarce world. Few will figure out that the emperor has no clothes... so look for the irrational and illogical to come streaming across all media.
6. Sadly, energy scarcity walks along with food and water scarcity and will lead to poor nutrition which will quickly lead to a resurgence of diseases. More jabs of the "just in time" variety to come, the curve isn't "cases" anymore - it will become obvious to even the most hypochondriac that there are other reasons. EUA has become a deadly mechanism. The myth of the mask will persist.
7. The era of Digital banking will replace paper money as a secure transaction for a time.
8. Fracturing of old geopolitical alliances and the forming of new ones along geographic lines that eliminate long and expensive trade routes through expansive ocean transits. Over the pole is 40% shorter than across the Pacific, huge positive impact on logistics. Transportation and local energy costs will overcome the value of cheap labor - so factories will downsize and move! When stuff moves expect disruptions in supply - everywhere... this will be the new normal for a time.
9. Battery technology improves to allow the 300 mile range. Charging time drops to less than an hour. Still an expensive and exotic solution and not a large scale answer, technology and material science creeps forward for those who can afford it.
10. The battle over small and agile vs big box will see disruption as age old economic constants no longer make the off shore or multinational supply chain equations work. As a think piece, imagine how valuable Amazon or Google would be with an 1830's infrastructure. Surely not going to be the reality of 2022, but more like 2050... 28 years is a single generation to re-create the new world without cheap energy. Giddy-up.
2022 will be kind of grim, then again a world facing numerous scarcity challenges will be full of twists and turns.
Hydrogen is the big wildcard. Let us hope 2022 brings us some good news on that front!
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