Seeing as how modern society structures our lives around institutionalized economic ideas, including the concept of interest rates and investments that are intended to provide a greater return on the investment than the initial deposit... Can you cognate that in a world of finite resources, this idea cannot stand the test of time? Steady state is great if you can achieve it. Growth and retraction around that set point should be expected. That is called "normal". The life style we are leaving behind has been abnormal in the history of the world.
For a variety of circumstances, our current economic systems have already demonstrated that growth is not a given nor a constant in spite of the equations in the econ books. Depletion, non-linear and sometimes intangible societal and environmental events effect the outcomes and have done so since the beginning. Admitting the system is incomplete when it comes to correcting for energy depletion has been hard to conceive of for most people because copious amounts of cheap energy over many generations have allowed substitutions of various kinds to replace the failing adventure with something else. So much so and for so long we have adopted the notion that science or technology will figure it out and tomorrow somehow will be better than today. We'll invent something... BUT not without abundant, cheap, available ENERGY. This is the part we all have a hard time understanding - mostly because keeping the wheels turning like they always have is our universal happy spot and we don't really know what or how to revert back to less oil, gas and coal and KEEP our exi$ting frameworks intact. Oopsie, the brick wall or cliff or whatever mental image you want to conjure is approaching so that your kids or grandchildren will have no choice but to address it if we don't. Some folks are indeed grappling with these ideas, read on.
If depletion reduces the input flow of low cost energy into our economic systems (albeit slowly) THAT becomes a new perturbation into a flawed economics model that never has seriously accounted for the largest input it has always been dependent on. Biophysical economics attempts to address this, but is still in its infancy as far as its ability to model system eroi and therefore in its ability to guide or discern implementation strategies and value technological solutions - many of which simply consume more energy at a faster rate and offer no solution anybody wants to project a few decades into the future. Again infinite growth is not possible with finite resources. Depletion demands reduction. How that reality gets adjusted in our complexity filled world is a tug of war with no geopolitical plan as far as most can see with an expectant eventual giant brawl involving blocks of the interested which further break down to thought leaders and influencers inside those blocs all the way to your local citizen just trying to pay their bills. Energy touches everyone. The lack of awareness and a plan to develop a cogent set of integrated policies regarding depletion will likely result in scarcity fueled contests EVERYWHERE. Chaos to be filmed by a plethora of cameras and sent to the data centers for some reactionary after action remediation LOL... Addressing the back end isn't going to fix the front end nor address the fundamental issue. But it will generate revenue. Yay.
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, Charles A.S. Hall and side kick Cutler Cleveland and Herman E. Daly & Robert Costanza all need to be looked at seriously and should be names familiar to the public discussion of our energy / economic future and how multidisciplined societal adaptation is necessary. This notion is not new, the Limits to Growth models sprang forward from the notion that energy was a critical input to our societies for hundreds of years. It is when you finally encounter the negative slope that you are forced to confront its implications. Sadly only after its painful affects are felt do we seem to react. LOL, for many I am sure they will be left wondering; "What happened"? Being creatures prone to the effects of cognitive dissonance, what we variously come up with to answer that question will be absolutely amazing to observe.
In pre-industrial age times, the major focus of life (agricultural economics if you will) was on farming which was local - regional at best. Next came hand made craftsmanship based upon talent and locality of resources. So much can be learned from studying what was valued in previous sustainable populations. We are a few generations away from energy and mineral depletion becoming a wide ranging and rigid constraint but this time, instead of a cultural or demographic regional phenomena, we are globally heading in that direction. Which you might think requires getting along and a collegial solution to OUR problem.
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| It will last forever - or will it? |
The Tacoma Narrows bridge wasn't too big to fail. Physics did what it always does and always will do. Gravity can't be negotiated. Physical limits are what they are, it is time for a realistic public discourse. Some people are indeed thinking ahead about these realties...
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