The close of the age of hyper exploitation...

 Consider we have a global awareness of depletion of dozens of familiar resources.

We can easily visualize emptying our refrigerator, our food pantry or our fuel tank.  We understand the concept of a finite resource.  Where we struggle is expanding our vision to grasp the food and the energy we consume comes from the Earth's pantry.  It is not infinitely large, nor has it been exploited at the rates we are experiencing now.  So a rational human should be able to connect the dots on a couple of ideas...

The economic systems we have don't consider the implications of depletion just wealth creation. That's a systematic failure hardwired into our "modern" civilization.  If you can dig it up, make something and sell it... no problem even though, just like Mother Hubbard's pantry the Earth's pantry is running out of lots of critical stuff.  Anyone who has ever lived in a mining town has experienced what this means first hand.  Great economy while the ore is easy to get, bankruptcy, hardship and dire times when the ore runs out. Why does that happen? Nobody plans ahead for depletion because it happens on a time scale people and governments tend not to plan for or get concerned over. Kicking the can down the road is a familiar past time, move somewhere else where there ore is not yet depleted...  Today globally we have gotten lost in a spiral of  hyper exploitation.  Lol, and this is not making our situation better, by the way. We have failed to grasp that we do not have infinite resources and we are too greedy to preserve our gifts for the future generations to come.  

All of us know we live on a planet with finite resources but yet we lack a popular philosophy of life that is consistent with that reality.  We let wealth generation and short term power and position convince us to sell the planets gifts for today's enjoyment and never think about tomorrow. One of our biggest blind spots is the failure to think over a planning horizon longer than a lifetime.  A civilizational life span - generations in time - nope, that's not us - now hoarding bickering, colonizing, oppressing, waring - that's us! The latest rumors talk about technocracy, digital dominance, AI, cameras and social controls tied to an ever more complex energy hungry matrix of constantly obsoleted operating systems and programming languages.  It may have its day but it wont last for very long. Meh, ideas that do not address the fundamental problems of depletion and scarcity will eventually fail - physics wouldn't have it any other way.  Sustainable living is incompatible with energy consuming complexity.  These futuristic machinations just add a new twist to how helpless or hapless the general population will eventually be in a generation or two when we are faced with an inevitable enormous energy contraction.  

Our cheap energy legacy has allowed generation after generation to become increasingly more delusional and increasingly more irrational in our beliefs and world views.  It is almost fairy tale like. How do we fix this?  Well my friends (from all over the world) I have hope that many of you are thinking and acting to align your life along ways that will help you to adapt and thrive - or just enjoy life.  Nobody needs the latest cell phone, or electronic gadget that pulls you away from immersion in the good things in life like neighbors, friends, a good book to read or a spirited and friendly debate at your local piazza.   Those are things to treasure.

In the end it will all get sorted... no matter who you vote for or what car you drive.  So learn to adapt and enjoy the ride, because I'm pretty sure none of us can change the situation we are in.  

How to create a slow motion train wreck...

 Depending on where in the world you live, you probably don't know about the Colorado River which is the source of irrigation water for many many farms in several states in the Southwestern US.  

A drought which happens from time to time has greatly effected the snow pack in the Rocky Mountains, and the traditional rainfall rates cannot keep up with extraction and evaporation which has created a situation where reservoirs and large dammed artificial lakes in the river system are running at record low depths.  Implications?  Well, Arizona will experience a 760,000 acre feet reduction in supply.  Nevada and California will experience enormous infrastructure costs to go deeper and add more subterranean pumping from depleting aquifers.  This in turn will accelerate the future loss of available water for crops. Agriculture consumes 80% of the basins water supply. A sort of Red Queens effect. 

How on earth did we get here?  Must be that pesky climate change that data centers and their point source of green house gas emissions seem to be immune from - no? 

Virtually all of the agricultural areas this system supported were once upon a time hyper-arid, very hot desert environments that no one lived in. Imagine that, setting all the agenda driven noise aside, the idea of reversing the natural environment which was in tune with the way the climate had established its natural rhythms was temporarily altered by man made irrigation for 100 years.   This applies to some notable areas like the Imperial  and Coachella Valleys in California and the farms surrounding Yuma, Arizona.  Before the big idea diverted Colorado River water into agricultural irrigation less than 3 inches a year of rainfall was the norm.  There were dollars to be made in watering the desert.  Cheap land became very expensive land and for a time, enormous crop yields were produced.  So money has been made! That seems to have been the goal without regard to biophysical economics.

If we look at maps from the early 1800's these areas were actually identified as deserts!  Just add water and shazam - name changes! Only there were problems from the start. Deserts tend to experience very high evaporation, so water has always been needed in copious amounts to keep the desert from returning.  The margin of safety against crop failure was so thin that even from the start a light winter with little snowpack meant farming went bust. So to double down on teaching the Earth how to behave, "entrepreneur$" added dam$, well$ and reservoir$.    So the drive for economic growth once again super-ceded common sense. Lets see how this evolved...

Climate does change, geophysics is indeed dynamic and consequently the impacts of our weather has always influenced the stability of human populations.  In the history of the Colorado River and its evolution we refused to acknowledge the power of natural forces.  In 1922 something called the Colorado River Compact was published. This "science" (Remember to just follow the science?) was built on a mathematical fiction. Yep, publishing misleading papers is a time honored skill.  The prediction of being able to produce 15,000,000 acre-feet of water was based on hydrologic data that captured the wettest decade in 1200 years.  So with this version of the truth, a fantastic revenue generating idea came into focus: selling real estate, building roads and towns, farming,  building towns and all that infra-structure that goes with it in all of these states... billions of dollars made speculators wealthy humanoids. All based on a misleading premise which now has ballooned into a potential  tragedy of national proportion. With an overhang of millions of people, their property and livelihoods, maybe this wasn't such a good idea after all.  But hey, lots of people made fortune$! I'm sure the disaster will be blamed on "climate change" and this eventuality will be offered as proof!  Only the climate never changed, man's attempt at changing it failed.  No matter, there's money to be made in selling the next big bottle of snake oil.  If we just had bold entrepreneurs to $ave the day...

The physics hadn't changed.  Building an irrigation system with dams and reservoirs based on a once every 1200 year decadal cycle of rain and snow was obviously never sustaining.  So to keep the bad idea going, enter - drill baby drill.  Pump water out from deep aquifers.  All finite life adventures, none of which is sustainable. Once again, humans aren't good at non-linearity.  Or the big picture if emotionally attracted to wishing rather than accepting facts. These aquifers are all going dry.

But wait, there's more. As the large damed reservoirs evaporate hydro-power generation goes off line, possibly forever. The famous Hoover Dam is nearing what is called a dead pool level.  Thats when water level drops to the point that generation is no longer possible.  Currently The Hoover is 30% below peak output as head level drops (water pressure reduces and turbines can't drive the torque needed to hit full rate generation). If the dead pool scenario eventually happens, millions of acres of heavily irrigated crop land will lose their primary source of water.  What does manage to flow will be cooked by the desert heat and algae blooms not seen in a hundred years will return with fish kills and toxicity of various sorts.  

The resulting power generation loss has already caused skyrocketing electricity (energy drives it all) bills which effect almost every cost associated with life. With no real back-up fossil fuel generation must increase to keep the enormous populations who now depend on electricity to keep cool and life functional in these places.

So the scheme to turn the desert into a cornucopia struggled and was kept alive by adding deep wells for a few generations, but alas physics - geophysics, wins again.  

 

Have we learned anything from this? Another example of economic opportunity cost insufficiently comprehended with physical limitation and follow on consequences when we all know better. Sadly I think we have not learned anything.  The take-away - ignoring system behavior may allow a small circle of investors to reap a windfall, but the back end may be so catastrophic it far outweighs the benefit to society.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again the automobiles of the 1930's were the high mark of craftsmanship and auto design...

 As an engineer I actually lived through the transition from the drafting board to CADAM and the evolution of computer aided design analysis and simulation.  I lived it and I can tell you what we lost along the way. 

I learned how to rotate that pencil to keep the tip sharp and the line weight constant on that giant mylar or velum sheet.  I had the erasure shields, french curves and cloth filled bags of crushed erasure bits... Yep I was there. I learned the Hardy Cross from an old AVRO guy.... and test lab was all analogue so equations and components were 1:1.  I had a notepad with my calculations recorded for reference.

I was in the front row seats for CADAM. Catia, Romulus-D, CAPT, SDRC Super Tab, Ideas, Pro-E, Creo, Group Trap Relimit baby with a light pen and function key pad... yeah some Inventor Auto Cad stuff too but that crossed over from architecture so it was never in my lane until much later.

Every step along the way as Silicon Graphics made pixels move to a faster Mhz/Ghz beat, I saw a degradation of human intellect in fundamental problem solving skills.  Let me share with you, revolving a section in your head and then on a 2d piece of paper to locate machining points or GT datums took some sensibilities that pushing mouse buttons simply don't back feed to the brain.  Broken mental feedback loop - and that matters. Analysis by mouse clicks and no mental grounding is another weakness we have managed to bake into our modern way of doing things. No underpinnings, just surprises when the recalls roll in.

So what am I getting at?  Two things: conservation via optimization and cognition applied to life.  

Those beautiful 1930's cars - like this one. See all those compound curves, beautiful body panels?  No computers, no CNC, no cad were used - just skilled craftsmen and artists working the clay on the front end the drafting boards in the middle and the model makers at the stamp plant. Think how much less money was dumped into the "old ways."  Human labor - both mental and artistic delivered. How many people could re-create this today using the tools and craftsmanship of the 1930's?  LOL, ask your AI to help you and see how that goes.  AI doesn't do craftsmanship, and if it's not hooked up to a step file that feeds some computer thing - sorry - no can do... maybe that's worth looking into. A real threat here is the loss of knowledge as to how to actually do something. Do you see where this is going?  So designing a car took longer - who cares when reliability and resource optimization and utilization matter - now more than ever.

2700 lbs of mostly steel, glass and rubber pushed along by an 80 HP inline six sipping fuel at 20 mpg and the typical owner maybe drove 7000 miles per year.  That is how efficient our communities were and how that enabled us to live our lives back then.The 2030 version of basic transportation should be much lighter and get a few more mpg, without all the electrical overhead too by the way IMHO. Nothing wrong with crank down windows and cable connected damper settings on vents.

Summary point 1.  Locality was what had evolved as the common way of life.  A long round trip was 50 miles, most trips were under 10.  You could get almost everything you needed in that circle. We need to recapture a common sense lifestyle and return to those efficiencies that didn't involve huge warehouses filled with stuff that came from half a world away. We need to make life that practical again.

Summary point 2. Simplicity was everything.  If it broke, you just fixed it yourself with no special tools or exotic electronics - even building up a spun crankshaft bearing. Can anyone do that in their garage  any more?  What real value (complexity of all sorts makes a ton of money - I know) does complexity have if it drives an incredible loss of reliability, early obsolescence and thereby makes system EROI ridiculous whilst destroying the ability of the average person to repair and re-use? Simplicity should be the goal. If we think about living in our time optimization of depleting resources is an important action to blunt the implications that scarcity brings. Simplifying is an OBVIOUS goal - unfortunately it doesn't make money, so it ain't happening. I think as a society we've long traded common sense for the fiction of forever economic growth.  Just another of the many dimensions to the mania I suppose.

I love those bullet headlights, not a single chip, gps, or computer on board. The supply chain that made this car made sense unlike today's vulnerable, overextended fat system eroi bad habit.

Do todays economic models reflect reality? Is anybody thinking ahead?

 Seeing as how modern society structures our lives around institutionalized economic ideas, including the concept of interest rates and investments that are intended to provide a greater return on the investment than the initial deposit... Can you cognate that in a world of finite resources, this idea cannot stand the test of time? Steady state is great if you can achieve it. Growth and retraction around that set point should be expected. That is called "normal". The life style we are leaving behind has been abnormal in the history of the world.

For a variety of circumstances, our current economic systems have already demonstrated that growth is not a given nor a constant in spite of the equations in the econ books.  Depletion, non-linear and sometimes intangible societal and environmental events effect the outcomes and have done so since the beginning.  Admitting the system is incomplete when it comes to correcting for energy depletion has been hard to conceive of for most people because copious amounts of cheap energy over many generations have allowed substitutions of various kinds to replace the failing adventure with something else.  So much so and for so long we have adopted the notion that science or technology will figure it out and tomorrow somehow will be better than today.  We'll invent something... BUT not without abundant, cheap, available ENERGY. This is the part we all have a hard time understanding - mostly because keeping the wheels turning like they always have is our universal happy spot and we don't really know what or how to revert back to less oil, gas and coal and KEEP our exi$ting frameworks intact.  Oopsie, the brick wall or cliff or whatever mental image you want to conjure is approaching so that your kids or grandchildren will have no choice but to address it if we don't.  Some folks are indeed grappling with these ideas, read on.

If depletion reduces the input flow of low cost energy into our economic systems (albeit slowly) THAT becomes a new perturbation into a flawed economics model that never has seriously accounted for the largest input it has always been dependent on.  Biophysical economics attempts to address this, but is still in its infancy as far as its ability to model system eroi and therefore in its ability to guide or discern implementation strategies and value technological solutions - many of which simply consume more energy at a faster rate and offer no solution anybody wants to project a few decades into the future. Again infinite growth is not possible with finite resources.  Depletion demands reduction. How that reality gets adjusted in our complexity filled world is a tug of war with no geopolitical plan as far as most can see with an expectant eventual giant brawl involving blocks of the interested which further break down to thought leaders and influencers inside those blocs all the way to your local citizen just trying to pay their bills.  Energy touches everyone. The lack of  awareness and a plan to develop a cogent set of integrated policies regarding depletion will likely result in scarcity fueled contests EVERYWHERE.  Chaos to be filmed by a plethora of cameras and sent to the data centers for some reactionary after action remediation LOL...  Addressing the back end isn't going to fix the front end nor address the fundamental issue.  But it will generate revenue. Yay.  

Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, Charles A.S. Hall and side kick Cutler Cleveland and Herman E. Daly & Robert Costanza all need to be looked at seriously and should be names familiar to the public discussion of our energy / economic future and how multidisciplined societal adaptation is necessary.  This notion is not new, the Limits to Growth models sprang forward from the notion that energy was a critical input to our societies for hundreds of years.  It is when you finally encounter the negative slope that you are forced to confront its implications.  Sadly only after its painful affects are felt do we seem to react.  LOL, for many I am sure they will be left wondering; "What happened"? Being creatures prone to the effects of cognitive dissonance, what we variously come up with to answer that question will be absolutely amazing to observe. 

In pre-industrial age times, the major focus of life (agricultural economics if you will) was on farming which was local - regional at best. Next came hand made craftsmanship based upon talent and locality of resources.  So much can be learned from studying what was valued in previous sustainable populations.   We are a few generations away from energy and mineral depletion becoming a wide ranging and rigid constraint but this time, instead of a cultural or demographic regional phenomena, we are globally  heading in that direction.  Which you might think requires getting along and a collegial solution to OUR problem. 

It will last forever - or will it? 

The Tacoma Narrows bridge wasn't too big to fail.  Physics did what it always does and always will do.  Gravity can't be negotiated. Physical limits are what they are, it is time for a realistic public discourse.   Some people are indeed thinking ahead about these realties... 

Summer is the best time of the year!

 We've been seeing our lake level drop more than usual, with very little rain falling this month.  

That has caused a lot of boat lifts to be in shallow water, too shallow to moor a boat.  It takes a lot of effort to re-adjust dock height and maybe extend them out to deeper water so I'd say almost half of the camps and homes who do have a boat don't have one in the water this summer.  That was our situation too.

It took a huge effort but I finally moved our dock and lift out and leveled them.  The effort is always worth the labor because when you get a chance to get out you are rewarded with seeing any one or more of the local bear, bobcat, loons, eagles, fishers, fox, deer, muskrat and geese all cohabiting this wonderful aquatic system. At one time or another all have passed through our yard and many have attempted to break into our garden! LOL, last winter a squirrel ate through the insulation on a few sensor wires that needed repair as well.  Those new pressurized gas caps were a mystery to me too.  Seems that they don't vent fuel vapor like the old fuel tank caps.  Well, that can be fixed!  But I digress as usual.  

This eagle was calling out and it took a while to find it!

The loons have been making their haunting calls all summer - especially at night.  We are so grateful for the beauty that surrounds us. Life is good here and I wish and hope it is for you my visitor as well.  

LOL, sigh. I recommend Primus

 Here, here and here.  Makes about as much sense as anything else in this world.

Happy B-Day JRO

 All my love

Dad ee oo

Book recommendation - a rare insight into energy

CJ Campbell's atlas has been on my bookshelf for a few years now. It is a stark reminder that there are no huge energy reserves "yet to be discovered".  It also plainly shows the reader that there is no magical country that you might fix colonial ambitions on because it's the next big energy sink you feel that century old need to conquer, bust up and  exploit.  Nope, all been found, all depleting, some a lot further along than others.  So if you can grasp that energy is the economy not the bank, you may be able to grasp all those plans for continued growth don't happen without limitless cheap energy.  

Well worth acquiring or a trip to your library to have a good read.  Whomever controls the world's BTU's owns the whole enchilada...  Lots of reserves out there, but coal seams 2 feet deep and a mile underground will never be mined but always counted in the "reserve" column.  Neither will gas or oil deposits that require more energy to get out of the ground than they can return.  So clever actors tell the story different ways - you have a big brain - you can figure it out for yoursel!    Then there are geological events like earthquakes, vulcanism and plate movements that can greatly alter the performance of a reserve.   

The past 200 years have truly been an anomaly in global history - sadly most of the planets current inhabitants know no other way of life than the exceptional one most of us are experiencing at the moment.  Entire systems of governance, financial machinations and "investment vehicles" are devoid of this finite and diminishing energy based reality as well.  It seems humans are just not good at history, and really good at delusional thinking, easily duped and manipulated. They aren't good at non-linearity either, but I digress.

So here is a thought piece.  Before the industrial age, where mankind slowly learned how to capitalize on cheap oil and coal to mechanize lifes arduous chores we had a small government footprint and villages of small size in rural places - these were the natural state of our global cultures and will be again.  That structure was no accident, It was the evolution of how we came to organize life in the absence of that cheap energy.  Populations were constrained by how much land could be plowed by oxen and planted by your father and harvested by the family. If the land didn't support crops nobody lived there.  

Consider we are in one generation or two, right back in that type of world - only with ideas that data centers and jet airplanes are going to be part of that.  Nope.  Energetic expenditures that compete with the human condition will go away, surveillance state or not.  Just ask Machiavelli.  Money and the power or privilege that is giving today's decision makers leverage won't work because in the future real food you can eat and real heat that can keep you warm are all that matters.  The make believe world will fall away and those who enjoy it's machinations will too.  

Yours truly

Niccolò Machiavelli believed people were easily manipulated because he viewed human nature as inherently selfish, fickle, and driven by appearances rather than reality. In The Prince, he famously noted that the masses are easily swayed by a leader who masters the art of deception and projects strength. At least when nobody is really hungry.

People are quick to pledge loyalty when times are good but will turn on a leader the moment trouble arises. He believed that because subjects are self-interested, their allegiance can be bought or managed through calculated rewards and carefully applied fear - again no body is REALLY hungry.  He argued that because "men in general judge more by their eyes than by their hands," a ruler does not actually need to possess good qualities, but must merely appear to have them... that veneer has its limits though.

So if we extrapolate this old wisdom to the the current global community and the power brokers who like to dominate and make their fortunes that way - take heed, the outcomes will be the same irregardless of modern high tech software, camera fueled AI and the plethora of digital control dreams being sold as the solution to whatever ails ya. People haven't changed but delusional thinking is as popular as ever at all stratas of society.  

LOL... maybe "AI" is good for something, I rather like my statue.  Backwards looking LLM's are not too accurate at divining a future not yet written.  Caveat Emptor. 

PS - I might add LLMs filled with terabytes of corrupt data sets acquired from compromised and agenda driven captured sources can only suggest corrupt and compromised solutions.  GIGO still rules the digital domain and there is a LOT of garbage out there - there is no magic bullet to clean up the mess that has been created over the past decades (only knowledgeable humans with a moral and ethical guiding principal fixing it is about the only chance we have to make it useful for the more complex problems).  Standard screening designs completely miss or misinterpret coherence when complex nonlinear interactions or unmodeled factors are present. Especially if you don't want to look for them!

Sure equations based on physics no matter how complicated should work correctly, but the results they should elucidate (making sense of the results) meh, I have read so many journals both during and post the covid exercise that presented false conclusions based on their own data sets that I have personally come to the realization that not too many editors or "peers" truly understand DOE statistics, co-factors, linear relationship bias and that's just the tip of the knowledge tree iceberg.  More complicated co-factors and successful test valuations seem to be the domain of very few these days and if your depending on the folks who hide out in ivory towers to grow a backbone, don't.  My 2 cents.  

Another chair just got taken out... err "claimed"

 As energy resources slowly become more expensive and depletion slowly bites down harder, a whole bunch of energy just went to a private AI machination... snag that chair!  "As tech giants turn to natural gas fields..." The musical chair game continues with corporate strategy placing their big butt down on a chair in Texas!  Restart the music, let's go around again and see who's the next unidentified player to NOT get energy and who is the lucky winner of the next chair.

At a time when energy feedstocks are in depletion - we have figured out how to make a bigger straw and stake out corporate winners and everybody else losers...  Interesting times.  I wonder where we will be in 20 years when this contract expires.  

LOL, the largest green house emissions in the US!  Another chair has been awarded. Is the whole global warming thing over now?  

Thirsty?

 Not to be a doomer, but I do think there should be SOME awareness as to other vital resources being in depletion...

Aquifers - of the 37 of the Earth's largest subterranean sources 21 systems have passed a tipping point.  That's right,  71% of those water / irrigation sources are running out - depleting faster than refilling and emptying FAST.  Of concern to many in the US is the Ogallala which provides crop irrigation water to the central US farms, data centers and what not... 30 years left at current rate of guzzling... then what? One generation away from no more irrigation in the Central US...  No cheap ethenol 'cuz there won't be any cheap corn.  Jenga!

13 of those global water sources just aren't refilling.  Hmmmm, that's a problem.

So apart from energy, critical minerals and metals - now you can add to the list water for irrigation - and of course for data center cooling.  >)  

Oopsie, business as usual has another problem

Quiz for our time...

 Just a little mental exercise to map cause and effect minus the talking points, talking heads and narratives.

1. Is what you are observing in today's chaotic world having the effect of sequestering or - ahem - conserving energy feedstocks? (Yes/No)

2. Would a giant energy shock force a serious re-think of global  economics models to adopt energy as a major underpinning of trade - and require a total rethink of legacy economics because promises made on infinite growth ain't gonna come true without infinite energy? (Yes/No)

3. If such mayhem from these physical realizations were to impact global populations would they be convoluted in a way as to see alignment with the business as usual LTG models? (Yes/No)

So if what ever you are seeing out there can be answered yes, yes, yes the results suggest in spite of all the hand waving and mud slinging theatrics, points 1,2 and 3 are being achieved.  

I'm not saying this is good or bad or anything else.  I am saying you should think about this because after some reflection this may all start to make sense.  

Pascha my Eastern friends, has arrived

Trampling Down Death by Death

Aleut: Khristus anahgrecum!     Alhecum anahgrecum!

Aleut: Khris-tusax agla-gikux!     Agangu-lakan agla-gikux!

Albanian: Krishti U Ngjall!     Vertet U Ngjall!

Alutuq: Khris-tusaq ung-uixtuq!     Pijii-nuq ung-uixtuq!

Amharic: Kristos tenestwal!             Bergit tenestwal!

Anglo-Saxon: Crist aras!             Crist sodhlice aras!

Arabic: El Messieh kahm!             Hakken kahm!

Armenian: Kristos haryav ee merelotz! Orhnial eh harootyunuh kristosee!

Athabascan: Xristosi banuytashtch'ey! Gheli banuytashtch'ey!

Bulgarian: Hristos voskrese!             Vo istina voskrese!

Byelorussian: Khrystos uvaskros!     Saprawdy uvaskros!

Chinese: Helisituosi fuhuole!     Queshi fuhuole!

Coptic: Pchristos aftooun!             Alethos aftooun!

Czech: Vstal z mrtvých Kristus!     Vpravdě vstal z mrtvých!

Danish: Kristus er opstanden!     Ja, sandelig opstanden!

Dutch: Christus is opgestaan!     Ja, hij is waarlijk opgestaan!

English: Christ is risen!             Indeed He is risen!

Eritrean-Tigre: Christos tensiou!     Bahake tensiou!

Esperanto: Kristo levigis!             Vere levigis!

Estonian: Kristus on üles tõusnud!     Ta on tõesti üles tõusnud!

Ethiopian: Christos t'ensah em' muhtan! Exai' ab-her eokala!

Finnish: Kristus nousi kuolleista!     Totisesti nousi!

French: Le Christ est réssuscité!     En verite il est réssuscité!

Gaelic: Taw creest ereen!             Taw shay ereen guhdyne!

Georgian: Kriste aghsdga!     Cheshmaritad aghsdga!

German: Christus ist auferstanden! Wahrlich Er ist auferstanden!

Greek: Christos anesti!             Alithos anesti!

Hawaiian: Ua ala hou 'o Kristo!     Ua ala 'I 'o no 'oia!

Hebrew: Ha Masheeha houh quam! Be emet quam!

Hungarian: Krisztus feltamadt!     Valoban feltamadt!

Ibo ( Nigeria): Jesu Kristi ebiliwo!     Ezia o' biliwo!

Indian (Malayalam): Christu uyirthezhunnettu! Theerchayayum uyirthezhunnettu!

Indonesian: Kristus telah bangkit!     Benar dia telah bangkit!

Italian: Cristo e' risorto!             Veramente e' risorto!

Japanese: Harisutos Fukkatsu!     Jitsu ni Fukkatsu!

Javanese: Kristus sampun wungu!     Tuhu sampun wungu!

Korean: Kristo gesso!                     Buhar ha sho nay!

Latin: Christus resurrexit!             Vere resurrexit!

Latvian: Kristus ir augsham sales! Teyasham ir augsham sales vinsch!

Lugandan: Kristo ajukkide!     Amajim ajukkide!

Norwegian: Christus er oppstanden! Sandelig han er oppstanden!

Polish: Khristus zmartwyckwstal! Zaprawde zmartwyckwstal!

Portuguese: Cristo ressuscitou!     Em verdade ressuscitou!

Romanian: Hristos a inviat!     Adevărat a înviat!

Russian: Khristos voskrese!             Voistinu voskrese!

Sanskrit: Kristo'pastitaha!             Satvam upastitaha!

Serbian: Hristos vaskrse!             Vaistunu vaskrse!

Slovak: Christos vstal z mŕtvych!     Vpravde vstal z mŕtvych!

Spanish: Cristo ha resucitado!     En verdad ha resucitado!

Swahili: Kristo amefufukka!             Kweli amefufukka!

Swedish: Kristus är uppstånden!     Han är sannerligen uppstånden!

Syriac: M'shee ho dkom!             Ha koo qam!

Tlingit: Krisdos kux̱ wudigút!     X’éiga kux̱ wudigút!

Turkish: Hristos diril - di!             Hakikaten diril - di!

Ugandan: Kristo ajukkide!     Kweli ajukkide!

Ukrainian: Khristos voskres!     Voistinu voskres!

Welsh: Atgyfododd Crist!             Atgyfododd yn wir!

Yupik: Xris-tusaq Ung-uixtuq!     Iluumun Ung-uixtuq!

Zulu: UKristu uvukile!             Ngempela uvukile!

Great and Holy Friday in the East has arrived

 Lord have mercy

Lord have mercy

Lord have mercy

Blessed Easter to all in the West...

 Christos anesti!  

Next week we will celebrate the East!

Western Good Friday is upon us

 

What can we make of this moment in time, we've been here before.

 Although no one alive today can share what it was like, the kind of turbulence we find ourself in is not new.

The Crises of the Third Century

Three Kingdoms

The End of the Han Dynasty 

and many many more examples exist in the historical timeline of the human race on this planet.

Perhaps the unusual aspect of this period we are in now is the connectedness of some kind of awareness of what is happening in various corners of the World in near real time.  The opinions posted, podcasts spoken and "news" reports proffered are as usual, a mix of truthfulness, misdirection, misunderstanding and/or outright deceit.  Often with aims to dehumanize, evoke nationalistic fervor and sew the seeds of internal strife. You have to figure that part out using your big brain. But that is the most salient awareness you need to bring to your mind in these days.  All of the divisive rhetoric reduces the power of the populace by fractionalizing what we think are important ideas.

We as a people tend to place short term survival ahead of long term wisdom. So fear, anxiety and anger are well known buttons to push to motivate human behaviors that make a small number of opportunists everywhere powerful and wealthy. Even Nicolo Machiavelli knew emotion spreads faster than reflection and Goebbels proved narratives are perceived as true when repeated enough times. But here is the interesting thing... today we communicate like never before. Add a good dose of discernment and we may very well have an impactful and positive result.

Part of rising above all the noise requires one to be realistic, search for the truth as best as you can discern it. That means being a passive listener will only render you a confused useful idiot. LOL, IMHO.

Recognize power is concentrated, but responsibility is diffused - by design. Any system or structure tends to project rules, and we like that.  Unfortunately even if they violate our moral or ethical imperatives.  Have a look at the Milgram Experiment.  Few of us have been tested and know what mettle we are made of. Those who have, have learned how remorseless, manipulative and compassionless certain evil people really are. It's a very small percentage of our population, but these people exist everywhere.  I have experience with this type... they are out there, and if they control the narrative and dominate your view - they simply program you what and how to think!

Don't assume the "us vs them" narrative is a meaningful  point of view.  It is a classical way to splinter groups and get them to fear or hate each other.  Red v Blue, Lib v Con, etc., etc... dead end.

Finally, as a citizen of the planet, any one of us has limited agency - but as a bloc we have tremendous ability to correct our errors.  

Take all of this and fold it into today's changing dynamics where governments and their influential groups are the policy brokers. Public opinion does have an important influential role but it first needs to be formed upon the reality of the situation and the collegial union of the many to make their voices heard. Thus flooding the zone with garbage propaganda prevents that coalescence.  That's where discernment and compassion matter. If left to its own devices - any government decides action, special influencers shape and incentivize the implementation to the advantage of their small circle of confidants - and unless you participate, the general population just gets pressured, persuaded and pulled along.  

So what attributes should we appreciate.  Well how about pausing before reacting... Expanding the "we" not the "them".  Reward accuracy in content, appreciate and actually take the time to understand multiple perspectives.  Understand the agenda certain voices bring to the forum.  You may have to do a little work to gain that knowledge.  

As we look to the future, a World that makes conquest increasingly an unacceptable cost to society would be a big step in the right direction. So would reducing the fear narratives in all of their manifestations. Somehow we need to evolve a limit on unchecked power, align our mutual economic interests with available energy, resource limitations and peaceful intent. We need to make aggression unprofitable, despicable and those who promote it should have sound reasons for what should be an unusual and rare position...

So this lofty goal will take time to achieve. Remember progress has never been a straight line, and that the current tensions although terrible also expose and identify particular weaknesses in our current systems. At the moment fear is being exploited and it is winning, division is being amplified and global systems seem to be reacting - not evolving - a lack of discernment all the way around IMHO.

But look around you, awareness of gross manipulation is very apparent, the germ of an idea that we are more alike than different is abetted by our communicative social medias. We stand at a cross roads in time. Energy is a big factor behind the chaos, but realization, collegial behavior and compassion are very strong forces and most of us have them.  Can we rise above the old ways and forge a better future?  We must try, and we must succeed.  

What about just you and your family?

 Continuing on this idea of "What can you do?" I wanted to leave you with a scaled down system for just a small family - two adults and two kids.  This might be helpful in helping you to frame the dimensions of the task of a sustainable life.

Let's first start by assuming 2 acres per person is a safe buffer size.  So you will need to acquire 8 acres of decent land, ideally a mix of cleared crop land and a 2 or 3 acre forest that can be managed to provide 4 cords of wood per year.  A property like this in the midwest of the US costs anywhere from $20K to $80K depending on things like out buildings on site, existing wells, fenced lots or just good quality land etc. By the way I used to heat a home almost entirely with wood and can attest to the 4 cord number. Just like in the larger plan you will need to dig a well and build rain catchment if not purchased with the land.  

Four people consuming 2500 calories per day means that you'll have to pick a variety of crops to yield about 3.5 M calories per year.  That can be achieved with a 1 acre garden for greens and a 5 acre farmed plot for your staple crops.  Those would be things like potatoes, grains, beans, squash, corn, wheat and a few chickens could make up the basis.  Just like in the 100 person think piece, a planting strategy and a crop rotation map obviously need to be figured out. Each of these staple crops yields a caloric and nutritional value.  You'll have to decide how you want to derive healthy results.  You may want to add things like cabbage for vitamin D. Fruit trees can be added but take years to produce.  Got maple trees? - there's your maple syrup.  Create a few bee hives, there's your honey!  

You still need dry storage, and you need to know how to can, dry, smoke or otherwise preserve wild game or fish you may acquire.  On a small independent endeavor you probably want to avoid livestock of any size as they drive a need for hay, need cover in some circumstances and generally add a lot to the work load. 

Electricity by nearby small hydro is best, wind chargers next or lastly, solar are real options with simple battery storage. You will have to get used to living with less electronic gadgetry but that's probably a good thing. Maybe consider buying a few oil lamps for the evening... They give a small amount of heat and with a reflector provide a warm light perfect for reading.

Realistically, a small project like this can comfortably provide 80 - 90% of your food with smart storage allowing you to amass a years worth of food stuff in storage.  This was pretty common on pre industrial age pioneer settlements.  

This is really pretty attainable, and depending on your goals near 80% food independence is pretty easy to accomplish.  If you work in the existing economy - sort of a hybrid lifestyle - Just about anybody can make this happen. 

My last post on  "what can you do".  Hope it inspires you!

Cheers!

Lets' take a serious look... PART 3

 Our village is an idea at this point.  We seek to take 100 people out of the modern world with all of its pluses and minuses and build this independent community.  Let's do this in a number steps over some realistic time period.

The founding step would be to assemble the like minded core group of founders.  Maybe ten or twenty very committed people,  Settle on a timeline and evolve expectations that all can agree on, then go shopping for some land. Within the first year strive to get storage, water supplies and rudimentary housing in place. This is a building year, so much attention will be put into education, first attempts at farming the first 20 acres and storing the most basic foods for preservation.  Only a few live on site, and the village is dependent on outside resources during this time. 20 acres under cultivation.

As time goes on and crop planting is scaled up a majority of the community will now be able to locate on site. Perhaps half of the community now live on site by year 4.  The other half may be working outside of the community.  Crop production and housing are priorities. 100 acres under cultivation.

By now some livestock are in production, a system is evolving to manage a woodlot to furnish 3 or 4 cords of wood per family each year.  Rainfall catchments assist the irrigation of crops.  The goal for full village occupancy would be something like a years worth of stored food,  and a years worth of stored energy.  

By year 6 the wells, streams, and catchment should be able to provide 5 gallons/day for people, add in animals, washing etc and the need grows to 6-7000 gallons a day for the whole village.  So water treatment and purification as well as colocation to a reliable clean water source is a fundamental location factor. 120 acres under cultivation and full caloric production is achieved with storage goals met.  All 100 villagers live on site.

So what does this cost to get off the ground?  For our 100 person village, basic housing $2M USD, water system $120K USD,  electric solutions with batteries $250K, another $259K for tools, equipment for mini tractors and implements, and $120K for storage facilities.  So start up costs that will need to be sunk in by say, year 3 to enable progress by year 5 or 6 is around $4M USD levied among the 100 villagers.  That's $40K per person.  Land cost is highly variable but consider something like $750K USD for 200 acres.  

In succeeding years crop rotation plans need to get implemented. The planting calendar is now reaching steady state.  Acre by acre planting plans need to be established, along with the crop rotation map.  Your village is in tune with the earth now and not very dependent on any external resources.

After the complete transition in about year 6, continuous improvements will strengthen the future of the village.  By this time 90% of the food consumed is produced in the village. Population is stable and soil amendments have increased yields naturally - organically.  

So talk to your friends, think about how such a concept of community could exist by just working together. Maybe an incremental approach works better for you and your group.  Here's the thing - these 3 posts are just a roll up your sleeves and THINK of what needs to happen for a 100 people to live a sustaining life in a moderate climate.  Use those system simulation tools in new ways, what if somebody in your group owns a 50 acre hobby farm, how could a small group collaborate to lessen dependency on outside resources given the considerations I mentioned?  Be inspired to imagine how some other grouping might work well for you.  Maybe your goal is for everyone to live right where they are and only achieve food independence... A completely different set of inputs.  Build the models, take a look!  

A key take-away is cooperation among committed people if you commit to action.  Once a strategy is formed, no matter what you do, strong designs and disciplined execution are needed because this is hard work.  

That's all for now. there will be no PART4, just my hope that these think pieces will inspire you to take a look beyond the platitudes and think about how we can actually benefit from collaborating.  

Let's take a serious look... PART 2

 Hopefully you have played around with creating a systems model. There are several open source (free) solvers out there and this mechanism allows you to look at outcomes with various input changes.  

So how do we size the critical components required?  Lets start with some assumptions like, 2500 calories a day for each person, about 900,000 calories per year.  This can be achieved with 3 acres of land per person if a mixed diet of grains and livestock.  So for a 100 person village, that is a land need of 200 acres which if detailed contains the crops, a pasture, housing, forest for wood and hunting, and wells.

This property could be subdivided into areas that are primary spaces for: housing, greenhouses, livestock shelters like chicken coops, orchards and apiary, stable crops like wheat, corn, beans and potatos (you may have very different crops depending on where you live. Another area considered to be managed forest which would provide firewood, foraging and hunting opportunity. What ever is left should be your biodiversity reserve for pollinators, birds and other wild life.

Let's make an attempt to design this property. In your planning an allocation strategy must be agreed upon so chaos is kept to a minimum.  Let's start with dividing up those 200 acres with 15 acres alloted for housing, cooking common areas and repair shops. 20 acres for a vegetable garden, 80 acres for the staple crops like grains, beans and potatoes. You will need a pasture for livestock - another 50 acres. Set aside 15 acres for orchards. The remainder for forest management for wood needed for heating, cooking and a hunting zone.  

Energy could be provided by solar panels for electricity, wood for heating and cooking and wind chargers, maybe hydro if you have a stream.  

You will need to diversify your food system.  Core crops will be your high calorie staple foods, things like potatoes, corn, wheat and beans.  Nutritionally you will need leafy greens, fruits and nuts.

Complementary livestock benefits from animals like chickens are eggs, protein and pest control, cows can give milk, beef and cheese. even goats can be useful for milk and land clearing.  So the animals are part of the system and may have several functions.

Finally all of this work will yield a bountiful harvest which requires some place to store the yield. Here preservation can be achieved with below ground "root" cellars, canning, fermentation, drying grains and beans. All necessary to survive a winter.

Now lets turn our attention to labor.  A village of 100 people might break down to something like this: 50 people involved in food production, 10 more keeping the infrastructure maintained.  Another 10 involved in healthcare and eduction, 10 more in food storage and processing.  That leaves 20 to cover governance, logistics, and back up redundancy.

Governance might look like a voted in council to make resource allocation decisions, conflict resolution and rule enforcement.  Done right, cultural cohesion can be achieved.

Next time we'll spend some time pondering how do we make this happen. 

Let's take a serious look at what you can do... PART 1

 So we all know something isn't right.  If you do just a little research you can learn that critical minerals and energy depletion are obvious outcomes of consumption at a high rate by a large population on a planet with finite resources.  You can also read about warnings from the early 1900's, the 1950's and the many simulations done in the 1970's that all tried to make society aware that there are hard limits to growth - often messaged in proxy statements designed to destroy demand (a whole range of nudges from birth control to fleet fuel consumption guidelines and just let your mind wander - there were many more).  

So how can you start to model your environment and see what might be possible with a small grouping of people and nothing more than land, water, sunlight. reasonable soil quality and healthy biodiversity. Let's consider these natural resource inputs to our open source model.

What about human inputs? Well, labor from healthy individuals is needed, knowledge of agriculture, how to administer medical treatment, how to go about food preservation and storage, and some mechanical ability (build and repair stuff)

Next, the system model will need a starting sink of cash and materials to enable agricultural inputs like a stock of heirloom seeds, and/or some livestock and buffer stocks of feed, a starting assortment of farming tools and modest equipment (this is not a large operation but a sustaining village).  Another input would be soil amendments like manure and compost, lastly some quantity of water from a well or stream for irrigation and storage.

People need to live somewhere so infrastructure has inputs to the system model too. Housing of some kind in needed, energy sources like wind, hydro, wood, peat etc., storage buildings for grain, root cellars for cool storage or over winter keeping, maybe refrigeration if energy is not a pressure point. A way to get around, maybe by bikes, golf carts, or horses. Lastly waste needs to be managed properly and thoughtfully.

Another input must be a decided way to exchange stuff.  Barter, or work to a schedule of time for each person then share etc.  This is where a valued material like silver might come in.  

Going deeper wherever you live you have climatic realities that encourage seasonal planting and crops that grow well, perhaps your crops could be exchanged with the community 50 or 100 miles away that grow other things...  You will also need to know how to mill grain, ferment, can, dry or smoke various products for storage so those are subjects somebody in the community needs to document, understand and lead in teaching. 

The model probably needs some external inputs too. Stuff like replacing worn out metal tools, replacement parts, replenishment of medicines, and perhaps a religious leader.

Constraints would be your climate growing season with all of its components like growing season length, amount of rain, days of sun, energy availability, storage capacity for harvested crops, available land acreage and some population set-point of this village.

That should be enough to get your brains started!  Next we'll have a look at some reality checks on caloric intake and other benchmarks needed to meet to be successful.