Happy B-Day NLO

 ALL MY LOVE ALWAYS!!!!

Dad

Why the scientific method requires challenges and questioning

 Lets take a look at some "giants" of science. See if you recognize these names:

Lord Kelvin - A fine product of Cambridge, a "second wrangler" and you probably know the name from the temperature scale.  Yep, did a lot of good stuff but couldn't help himself in passing out this wisdom; "X Rays are a hoax" and he didn't stop there, "Heavier than Air Flying Machines are Impossible."

The New York Times - "A Rocket will Never be able to Leave the Earth's Atmosphere." (modern journalism consulting "experts" haven't improved much)

Darryl Zanuck - "Television won't Last..."

Ken Olson President of DEC in 1977 - "There is no Reason for any Individual to have a Computer in his Home" With leadership like that it is easy to see how DEC went away while other competitors with less resources became enormous successes. 

IBM execs to the founders of Xerox - "The World Potential Market for Copy Machines is 5000 at Most." Great financial advice, wouldn't you say? Yeah, IBM has got it wrong MANY times.

There are thousands of such pearls of wisdom spouted by the "experts" of the day. If we have learned anything let it be that the ability to contest the conventional wisdom of the day is how we make progress through the scientific method.  When we suppress voices, deny evidence, and promote opinions over reproducible facts we simply stagnate under the weight of hubris, or worse, get lost in a confusing meaningless propaganda that serves an ideology which can't stand on it's own. The so called elite, often live in an echo chamber and like so many before them become convinced that they see further, know more, and are the only visionaries that can steer the boat.  LOL, steer it onto the rocks that is.  Good ideas, even great ideas come from everywhere.  Ivy league and expert status - just like the scientific method - should never be a matter of blind trust.  That is ridiculous. 

The systems analysis folks think they have the answers, piffle.  Good tool, know and admit it's limitations and you'll be a better analyst.  With all do respect to the embryonic Limits to Growth work.  A great start, but where are the decentralization and regional autonomy equations that examine localization, energy independence based on conservation and sustainable zero growth (not zero carbon by the way)?  Perhaps those models exist there were a couple of other reports written that have yet to be published.  Lord only knows what models with whatever errors they have, were all about.  Models and analysis is great stuff. I have spent a few decades doing analysis and simulation of complex systems.  I have never forgot that the real world is orders of magnitude more complicated than what Kelvin, Olson and a whole host of egg heads get funded to talk about.  Models can say anything my friends. Real data, equations with explained variables, scrutiny and debate... that's what keeps those who live way high up in the towers from academic, egoistic, asphyxiation.  One of my pet peeves is this topic.  If you want to dodge the hard edge of truth, do a meta analysis.  You can ALWAYS weasel your way out with a Meta Analysis. Right all you experts at the CDC?  - Yeah...  it's as good as a placebo but we can't rule it out.... gah,, this should drive any scientist bonkers if you care about what you do, publish and say.  Then again, these days a lot of "situational ethics" seem to be in play and hey, what about those patent bennies?  I gotta retire some day.

"Question everything" - Albert Einstein  I might add, especially this stuff.

It's not that hard to think for yourself!  Please do so.

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The CH4 methane puzzle - and liquid hydrocarbons in general.

 So eons ago a bunch of plankton, biomass and the random dinosaur decomposed and left us our treasured hydrocarbon energy resources... so say our time tested experts who never get it wrong. (more often wrong than right - whenever you see an unnamed expert cited or the ever popular plural "experts" as if to insinuate there is consensus when parroted by your fav tv person with maybe a degree in liberal arts) you know you are reading an opinion piece with an agenda aimed at shaping your version of reality.  Think critically.  It's not that hard. The mass media interview style of contrived blubbering called "the news" rarely gets further than politically designed and carefully crafted hyperbole. A litany of curated questions that appear everywhere all at once and asked by one smiley face you see every day (if you watch this stuff) only to be answered by another smiley face (expert who you don't usually see) who somehow has the "facts".  

Don't worry your pretty little head, we've just asked and answered the questions we think are important - now just sit there and gaze into the box... the whole situation covered - just for you, we've told you all you need to know, now let's pan the camera over to the latest exciting movie (which the network also owns) or some screwy salacious bit to lubricate your limbic system. LOL...  Isn't not thinking great?

So completely tiring.  So here is a little thought piece. Something to contemplate as you travel over your own version of reality. 

Lol, by the way, we have the be$t expert$ money can buy.

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Merry Christmas to all in the East

 Let us hope for the peace we pray for...

Glory to God in the Highest and peace on Earth, good will towards mankind...

Don't look here!  IF... you believe the climate change narrative.

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Happy New Year

 A great conversation with Ian Plimer on climate change.  He is a bit stubborn on the depletion data, but again, reasonable discussion that is science based. A lot of things change when we think about energy depletion and various conservation strategies. 

Common sense amidst the noise and spin. How energy plays into world events at an increasing tempo.

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