Tuesday, September 5, 2023

Saudi Arabian proverb: “My grandfather rode a camel, my father drove a car, I fly a jet plane, my son will ride a camel.”

 A bit dated, but still a wonderful set of writings on THE subject of our times...


Human Future

Mineral Depletion

Roper, and so many others have looked at the obvious and tried to awaken the casual observer and the able influencer.  The problem in my opinion is more political abetted by faulty economic theory.  If you consider the non-linearities of discovery, use and depletion, economic growth is absolutely incompatible with how the world works.  

Zero growth and sustainable processes are the only natural schemas in nature that provide anything that looks like stasis.  Making money out of managing money, underwriting development with the promise to provide interest payments to investors are examples of how economics is incompatible with the world.

I've said "physics always wins" and it will.  If you model the system equations by various modifications used in the "Limits to Growth" you can observe for yourself how non-linear results are achieved by business as usual thinking.  

Roper brings an interesting treatment of re-cycling.  The notion that minerals and metals with poorer and poorer concentrations can be refined and used or can never be exhausted because of recycling is obviously incorrect although one can acquire and extend resources that you don't have by adopting re-cycling.  For example if you import a lot of Lithium Ion batteries ostensibly to use and then capture the materials in your own re-cycling effort you can achieve aggregation of those materials.  But an energy analysis of all of the system inputs is not very encouraging.  That is if you also contain pollution.  If you don't consider that in your calculation things look more profitable. But that's based on our flawed economic growth based theories.  

A locally produced and consumed hydrogen energy based economy seems much closer to a stasis maintaining approach, but there are few opportunities to monetize this energy strategy.  IE if you want a real re-set, hydrogen is the obvious way to go in my humble opinion.  Economists and bankers wouldn'i warm up to this - at least until it got cold and dark...  LOL, but I digress.  

There are more important things than making money when it comes to heading off a crises.  Perhaps economic evolution in thought can be merged with sustainable regional models to create a better way.  We need thought leaders to show up pretty soon on this matter!

Anyhow, please treat yourself to a perusal through Dr Roper's work.  He has some wisdom to share even if it's a bit dated.  His view on depletion extends to minerals and metals and his recycling models are fascinating learnings.  These problems won't go away.

Don't forget this oldy either...

Rickover (1957)

Nothing new about any of this, except how solutions are currently being described, what top down change is attributed to and how contemporary schemes are put into action without ever mentioning the word - depletion.  

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